Our 4Q24 Fundamentals Forecast Performance
By Big Data Federation, Inc.
Our machines produce forecasts for several key fundamental metrics for more than 1,200 companies of varying sizes every quarter.
Notably, over one-tenth earned a high-confidence rating. Within this set, identified through historical error analysis, our revenue forecast demonstrated an average absolute percent error of 1.8%, surpassing the analysts’ consensus, which had an error rate of 3.5%. Moreover, our algorithms showcased remarkable precision in predicting revenue beats (nearly 90%).
| Category | # of Forecasted Tickers1 | # of Forecasted Tickers w/ High Confidence2 | Absolute Forecast Error for High Confidence Tickers3 | Absolute Forecast Error for Consensus4 | Forecast Accuracy Edge Delivered5 | Revenue Beat Forecast Precision6 |
| Overall | 1234 | 153 | 1.8% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 89.2% |
| Large Cap | 394 | 62 | 1.7% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 91.5% |
| Mid Cap | 236 | 21 | 2.1% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 89.5% |
| Small Cap | 93 | 5 | 2.0% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 80.0% |
Our models provide a range of additional forecasts at the company level, covering non-GAAP gross income, non-GAAP EBITDA, and operating metrics. Within OdinUltra, we’ve included a “Key Drivers” sub-tab to improve transparency, allowing investors to explore the key metrics that underpin these forecasts. Key drivers are automatically identified by our advanced algorithms through a meticulous ecosystem and interconnect discovery process that may surpass human common sense.
Further amplifying our offerings, we have incorporated aggregate forecasts for 65 S&P 500 industries and all eleven sectors of the S&P 500. The forecasted metrics encompass aggregate revenue, non-GAAP gross margin, and non-GAAP EBITDA margin. Notably, our aggregated fundamentals forecasts are more meaningfully accurate than those at the company level.
To access to our fundamental forecasts, contact us at support@odinultra.ai.
1Total number of companies that Odin has forecasts on key fundamentals metrics.
2Number for Odin’s revenue forecasts that exceeded our high confidence thresholds
3Odin’s average absolute percent error for revenue forecast compared to companies’ actual revenue for high confidence companies.
4Analysts’ average absolute percent error for revenue consensus compared to companies’ actual revenue.
5Accuracy advantage/edge average delivered by Odin compared to analysts’ consensus for revenue in absolute terms.
6Percentage of occurrences when Odin revenue forecasts were above consensus and actual reported revenues were also above consensus (revenue beat).
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