Our 2Q23 Forecast Performance
By Big Data Federation, Inc.
Another quarter has come to an end. Our machines produced revenue forecasts for over one thousand companies of all sizes. Impressively, more than one-quarter earned a high-confidence rating, denoted by the * symbol on OdinUltra’s forecast table. Within the high-confidence group, determined based on historical error, our revenue forecast exhibited an average absolute percent error of 2.7%, outperforming the analysts’ consensus, which had an error rate of 4.1%. Furthermore, our algorithms delivered astonishing accuracy in predicting revenue beats (over 92%) and misses (almost 68%)8.
| Category | # of Forecasted Tickers1 | # of Forecasted Tickers w/ High Confidence2 | Absolute Forecast Error for High Confidence Tickers3 | Absolute Forecast Error for Consensus4 | Forecast Accuracy Edge Delivered5 | Revenue Beat Forecast Precision6 | Revenue Miss Forecast Precision7 |
| Overall | 1324 | 311 | 2.7% | 4.1% | 1.4% | 92% | 68% |
| Large Cap | 532 | 136 | 2.1% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 94% | 83% |
| Mid Cap | 529 | 124 | 2.7% | 4.1% | 1.4% | 90% | 69% |
| Small Cap | 263 | 51 | 4.2% | 5.0% | 0.8% | 93% | 56% |
Source: Big Data Federation, Inc.
At the company level, our models provide a range of additional forecasts, encompassing non-GAAP gross income, non-GAAP EBITDA, operating metrics, and product segments. Within OdinUltra, we’ve incorporated a “Key Drivers” sub-tab to enhance transparency, enabling investors to delve into the key metrics that underpin these forecasts. Key drivers are automatically selected by our advanced algorithms through a rigorous ecosystem and interconnect discovery process that may exceed human common sense.
Beyond individual company level forecasts, we have expanded our offerings to incorporate aggregate forecasts for 65 S&P 500 industries and all eleven sectors of the S&P 500. The metrics forecasted include aggregate revenue, non-GAAP gross margin, and non-GAAP EBITDA margin. Remarkably, our aggregated fundamentals forecasts are more meaningfully accurate than those at the company level.
For the past quarter, our Consumer Price Index (CPI) forecasts were highly precise, and the actual numbers came extremely close to our predictions.
| Month | Core CPI Absolute Delta Gap9 | Headline CPI Absolute Delta Gap10 |
| Jun-23 | 0.01% | 0.10% |
| Jul-23 | 0.03% | 0.19% |
| Aug-23 | 0.04% | 0.01% |
Source: Big Data Federation, Inc.
OdinUltra users can now create active event-based strategies based on combinations of Odin’s forecasts, investors’ own forecasts, and 100s of technical and economic indicators around macroeconomic or earnings releases.
1Total number of companies that Odin has forecasts on key fundamentals metrics.
2Number for Odin’s revenue forecasts that exceeded our high confidence thresholds
3Odin’s average absolute percent error for revenue forecast compared to companies’ actual revenue for high confidence companies.
4Analysts’ average absolute percent error for revenue consensus compared to companies’ actual revenue.
5Accuracy advantage/edge average delivered by Odin compared to analysts’ consensus for revenue in absolute terms.
6Percentage of occurrences when Odin revenue forecasts were above consensus and actual reported revenues were also above consensus (revenue beat).
7Percentage of occurrences when Odin revenue forecasts were below consensus and actual reported revenues were also below consensus (revenue miss).
8Recorded since Sept 2016 with a third-party escrow company.
9Absolute percentage delta between actual Core CPI number and those of Odin’s forecast.
10Absolute percentage delta between actual Headline CPI number and those of Odin’s forecast.
About OdinUltra
OdinUltra is a cutting-edge no-code specialized AI platform, designed to cater to a wide array of professionals in the asset management industry. It is a battle-tested specialized partner that empowers users including discretionary, quantitative, multi-asset, and multi-strategy managers to harness the immense potential of big data and sophisticated investment techniques. From idea exploration and construction to verification and deployment, OdinUltra is an all-encompassing tool. Asset managers can enhance existing products and rapidly develop new ones, securing a competitive edge in the dynamic world of asset management.
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