OdinUltra Nails Fundamentals Forecasts
By Big Data Federation, Inc.
Our machines generate forecasts for various key fundamental metrics for over 1,000 companies of varying sizes every quarter.
Approximately seventy percent of companies in the S&P 500 have already reported earnings, we wanted to share our forecast performance so far this quarter.
OdinUltra has a strong level of confidence in roughly one-quarter of its revenue forecasts. The table below represents high confidence tickers, which are around 120 companies of all sizes quarter-to-date.
| Category | Absolute Revenue Forecast Error | Revenue Beat Forecast Precision1 | Revenue Miss Forecast Precision2 |
| Overall | 2.0% | 89.5% | 77.8% |
| Large Cap | 1.6% | 91.7% | 75.0% |
|
Mid Cap |
2.1% | 86.5% | 75.0% |
| Small Cap | 3.1% | 90.0% | 100.0% |
Source: Big Data Federation, Inc.
The table below shows our accuracy across Revenue, Gross Income and EBITA forecasts, focused on mega-cap companies:
| Financials Beat/Miss Forecast Precision | |||
| Category | Revenue | Gross Income | EBITDA |
| Apple | Predicted in line with consensus | Predicted beat accurately | Predicted beat accurately |
| Microsoft | Predicted beat accurately | Predicted beat accurately | Predicted beat accurately |
| Alphabet | Predicted beat accurately | Predicted beat accurately | Predicted beat accurately |
| Amazon | Predicted beat accurately | Predicted beat accurately | Predicted beat accurately |
| Meta | Predicted beat accurately | Predicted beat accurately | Predicted beat accurately |
| Tesla | Predicted beat inaccurately | Predicted in line with consensus | Predicted in line with consensus |
Source: Big Data Federation, Inc.
Table below captures the forecast performance of several product segment sales for the aforementioned mega-cap companies in which our algorithms had high confidence3.
|
Company |
Product Segment |
Beat/Miss Forecast Precision |
|
Apple |
iPhone |
Predicted miss accurately |
|
Services |
Predicted beat accurately |
|
|
Microsoft |
Intelligent Cloud |
Predicted beat accurately |
|
More Personal Computing |
Predicted beat accurately |
|
|
Productivity and Business Processes |
Reported in line |
|
|
Amazon |
Advertising |
Predicted beat accurately |
|
AWS |
Reported in line |
|
|
Online Stores |
Predicted miss inaccurately |
|
|
Subscription Services |
Predicted beat accurately |
|
|
Third-Party Seller Services |
Predicted beat accurately |
|
|
Meta |
Advertising |
Predicted beat accurately |
Source: Big Data Federation, Inc.
1Percentage of occurrences when Odin revenue forecasts were above consensus and actual reported revenues were also above consensus (revenue beat).
2Percentage of occurrences when Odin revenue forecasts were below consensus and actual reported revenues were also below consensus (revenue miss).
3Our models were unable to predict Alphabet’s product segments this quarter due to several moving parts.
About OdinUltra
OdinUltra is a cutting-edge no-code specialized AI platform, designed to cater to a wide array of professionals in the asset management industry. It is a battle-tested specialized partner that empowers users including discretionary, quantitative, multi-asset, and multi-strategy managers to harness the immense potential of big data and sophisticated investment techniques. From idea exploration and construction to verification and deployment, OdinUltra is an all-encompassing tool. Asset managers can enhance existing products and rapidly develop new ones, securing a competitive edge in the dynamic world of asset management.
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