Our 4Q23 Fundamentals Forecast Performance
By Big Data Federation, Inc.
Our machines generate forecasts for various crucial fundamental metrics for over 1,402 companies of different sizes last quarter.
Consistent with previous quarters, nearly one-fourth of our forecasts received a high-confidence designation. Within this group, selected via historical error evaluation, our revenue forecast exhibited an average absolute percent error of 2.4%, outperforming the analysts’ consensus, which registered an error rate of 3.5%. Furthermore, our algorithms displayed exceptional exactitude in forecasting revenue beats (93%)7.
| Category | # of Forecasted Tickers1 | # of Forecasted Tickers w/ High Confidence2 | Absolute Forecast Error for High Confidence Tickers3 | Absolute Forecast Error for Consensus4 | Forecast Accuracy Edge Delivered5 | Revenue Beat Forecast Precision6 |
| Overall | 1402 | 326 | 2.4% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 93% |
| Large Cap | 606 | 164 | 2.0% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 93% |
| Mid Cap | 504 | 117 | 2.8% | 3.6% | 0.8% | 92% |
| Small Cap | 285 | 45 | 2.6% | 3.6% | 1.0% | 97% |
Our algorithms produce a broad spectrum of additional forecasts at the individual company level, encompassing non-GAAP gross income, non-GAAP EBITDA, operating metrics, and product segments. Within OdinUltra, the "Key Drivers" sub-tab enhances transparency by allowing investors to delve into the key metrics that underpin these forecasts. Key drivers are seamlessly identified by our sophisticated models through a comprehensive analysis of ecosystem interconnections that exceeds human capabilities.
Further expanding OdinUltra's services, we have integrated aggregate forecasts for 65 industries within the S&P 500 and all eleven sectors of the S&P 500. The predictions include aggregate revenue, non-GAAP gross margin, and non-GAAP EBITDA margin. Importantly, our aggregated fundamentals forecasts are significantly more meaningful than those at the company level.
OdinUltra deploys a scientific approach to fundamental forecasting offering accurate, comprehensive, systematic, and unbiased results. We employ over 1400+ high-quality factual data sources that are publicly available, including SEC filings, government agencies, and industry trade associations. We avoid sample/panel data, which face issues like biases from limited demographic and geographic exposure. Even then, a single data source alone is purely one dimensional, which can produce large errors.
Our algorithms have identified over 400,000 direct and latent relationships between fundamentals of companies, industries, and economies within the S&P 500 universe alone. Each company possesses a distinct fingerprint defined by its product configuration, geographic reach, and industry-specific metrics. Furthermore, today’s companies are ever increasingly complex and interdependent due to extensive supply chains, accelerating global reach, and growing end-market diversification.
For customized strategy construction using our fundamental forecasts into the earnings, please contact us at strategy@odinultra.ai.
1Total number of companies that Odin has forecasts on key fundamentals metrics.
2Number for Odin’s revenue forecasts that exceeded our high confidence thresholds
3Odin’s average absolute percent error for revenue forecast compared to companies’ actual revenue for high confidence companies.
4Analysts’ average absolute percent error for revenue consensus compared to companies’ actual revenue.
5Accuracy advantage/edge average delivered by Odin compared to analysts’ consensus for revenue in absolute terms.
6Percentage of occurrences when Odin revenue forecasts were above consensus and actual reported revenues were also above consensus (revenue beat).
7Recorded since Sept 2016 with a third-party escrow company.
About OdinUltra
OdinUltra is a cutting-edge no-code specialized AI platform, designed to cater to a wide array of professionals in the asset management industry. It is a battle-tested specialized partner that empowers users including discretionary, quantitative, multi-asset, and multi-strategy managers to harness the immense potential of big data and sophisticated investment techniques. From idea exploration and construction to verification and deployment, OdinUltra is an all-encompassing tool. Asset managers can enhance existing products and rapidly develop new ones, securing a competitive edge in the dynamic world of asset management.
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