Our 3Q24 Fundamentals Forecast Performance

For the past quarter, our machines generated predictions for key fundamental metrics across a diverse group of 1,415 companies spanning various sizes and industries.

As in previous quarters, almost one-fifth of our forecasts were tagged with a high-confidence rating. From these, our revenue projections achieved an average absolute percentage error of just 2.9%, outperforming the analysts' consensus error rate of 3.4%. Furthermore, our models excelled at forecasting revenue beats, achieving an impressive 89% accuracy rate.

Category	# of Forecasted Tickers1	# of Forecasted Tickers w/ High Confidence2	Absolute Forecast Error for High Confidence Tickers3	Absolute Forecast Error for Consensus4	Forecast Accuracy Edge Delivered5	Revenue Beat Forecast Precision6
Overall	1415	215	2.9%	3.4%	0.5%	88.8%
Large Cap	595	98	3.3%	3.3%	0.0%	86.2%
Mid Cap	500	73	2.0%	2.9%	0.9%	92.8%
Small Cap	308	44	3.7%	4.2%	0.5%	88.1%

Our proprietary algorithms deliver a comprehensive suite of forecasts at the individual company level, encompassing non-GAAP gross income, non-GAAP EBITDA, operational metrics, and product segment. Within OdinUltra, the "Key Drivers" sub-tab offers investors insights into the critical metrics underpinning these forecasts. Key drivers are seamlessly identified by our sophisticated models through a comprehensive analysis of ecosystem interconnections that exceeds human capabilities. 

To expand OdinUltra's offerings, we've included aggregate forecasts for 65 industries within the S&P 500, as well as predictions for all eleven sectors of the S&P 500 index. These include projections for aggregate revenue, non-GAAP gross margin, and non-GAAP EBITDA margin. Interestingly, our aggregate-level forecasts often hold even greater significance than those at the individual company level.

OdinUltra applies a scientific methodology to fundamental forecasting, delivering precise, comprehensive, systematic, and unbiased outcomes. We draw from over 1,400 high-quality, publicly available factual data sources, including SEC filings, government agencies, and industry trade groups. We steer clear of sample or panel data, which often suffer from biases due to limited demographic and geographic representation. Even so, relying on a single data source is inherently one-dimensional and can lead to significant errors.

Our algorithms have uncovered more than 400,000 direct and latent relationships between the fundamentals of companies, industries, and economies within the S&P 500. Each company exhibits a unique fingerprint based on its product mix, geographic footprint, and industry-specific metrics. Additionally, modern companies are becoming increasingly complex and interconnected, driven by extensive supply chains, expanding global reach, and increasing diversification in end markets.

To access to our fundamental forecasts, contact us at support@odinultra.ai.