Our 3Q23 Fundamentals Forecast Performance
By Big Data Federation, Inc.
Our machines produce forecasts for several key fundamental metrics for more than 1,000 companies of varying sizes every quarter.
Significantly, over one-quarter earned a high-confidence rating, indicated by the * symbol on OdinUltra's forecast table. Within this set, identified through historical error analysis, our revenue forecast demonstrated an average absolute percent error of 2.4%, surpassing the analysts’ consensus, which had an error rate of 3.6%. Moreover, our algorithms showcased remarkable precision in predicting revenue beats (over 91%) and misses (almost 74%)8.
| Category | # of Forecasted Tickers1 | # of Forecasted Tickers w/ High Confidence2 | Absolute Forecast Error for High Confidence Tickers3 | Absolute Forecast Error for Consensus4 | Forecast Accuracy Edge Delivered5 | Revenue Beat Forecast Precision6 | Revenue Miss Forecast Precision7 |
| Overall | 1372 | 341 | 2.4% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 91% | 74% |
| Large Cap | 575 | 155 | 1.9% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 91% | 76% |
| Mid Cap | 499 | 130 | 2.2% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 92% | 74% |
| Small Cap | 298 | 56 | 4.1% | 4.2% | 0.1% | 88% | 67% |
Source: Big Data Federation, Inc.
Our models provide a range of additional forecasts at the company level, covering non-GAAP gross income, non-GAAP EBITDA, operating metrics, and product segments. Within OdinUltra, we’ve included a “Key Drivers” sub-tab to improve transparency, allowing investors to explore the key metrics that underpin these forecasts. Key drivers are automatically identified by our advanced algorithms through a meticulous ecosystem and interconnect discovery process that may surpass human common sense.
Further amplifying our offerings, we have incorporated aggregate forecasts for 65 S&P 500 industries and all eleven sectors of the S&P 500. The forecasted metrics encompass aggregate revenue, non-GAAP gross margin, and non-GAAP EBITDA margin. Notably, our aggregated fundamentals forecasts are more meaningfully accurate than those at the company level.
In the last quarter, our forecasts for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) demonstrated a high level of precision, and the actual numbers closely matched our predictions.
| Month | Core CPI Absolute Delta Gap9 | Headline CPI Absolute Delta Gap10 |
| Oct-23 | 0.13% | 0.03% |
| Nov-23 | 0.01% | 0.09% |
| Dec-23 | 0.04% | 0.06% |
Source: Big Data Federation, Inc.
1Total number of companies that Odin has forecasts on key fundamentals metrics.
2Number for Odin’s revenue forecasts that exceeded our high confidence thresholds
3Odin’s average absolute percent error for revenue forecast compared to companies’ actual revenue for high confidence companies.
4Analysts’ average absolute percent error for revenue consensus compared to companies’ actual revenue.
5Accuracy advantage/edge average delivered by Odin compared to analysts’ consensus for revenue in absolute terms.
6Percentage of occurrences when Odin revenue forecasts were above consensus and actual reported revenues were also above consensus (revenue beat).
7Percentage of occurrences when Odin revenue forecasts were below consensus and actual reported revenues were also below consensus (revenue miss).
8Recorded since Sept 2016 with a third-party escrow company.
9Absolute percentage delta between actual Core CPI number and those of Odin’s forecast.
10Absolute percentage delta between actual Headline CPI number and those of Odin’s forecast.
About OdinUltra
OdinUltra is a cutting-edge no-code specialized AI platform, designed to cater to a wide array of professionals in the asset management industry. It is a battle-tested specialized partner that empowers users including discretionary, quantitative, multi-asset, and multi-strategy managers to harness the immense potential of big data and sophisticated investment techniques. From idea exploration and construction to verification and deployment, OdinUltra is an all-encompassing tool. Asset managers can enhance existing products and rapidly develop new ones, securing a competitive edge in the dynamic world of asset management.
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